Retirement Planning During a Bear Market

What if they continually called for a Retirement Crisis but none emerged?

The perpetual claims of doomsdayers of a “Retirement Crisis” remind me almost verbatim of the climate alarmists.  “We’re all gonna die…unless we do this, that and the other.”

These two groups have been saying stuff like this for years, decades, shoot go back to Malthus, for centuries.  But, once again, humanity continues to show its resilience and just trucks along, day after day, living better, more abundant lives…much to the chagrin of the naysayers.

But, the battle still must be waged even with the evidence in front of our very eyes that things are good and only getting better.
The alarmists always have the loudest voices and are quick to label anyone who disagrees as deniers and anti-science, which only serves to silence those who disagree.

Be it as it may, the truth ultimately prevails(well, I hope).  So, what a pleasure it is to have interviewed for a second time Andrew Biggs from the American Enterprise Institute last night on my LiveStream.

If you didn’t catch the live version may I suggest to you to watch it? It’s a breath of fresh air that ALL Americans need to hear when it comes to their retirement planning.

Andrew had a lasting impact on YOU specifically, when it comes to your Social Security statement and some of the tools you have access to at the SSA.gov.

While he readily admits his impact wasn’t huge because of the nature of bureaucracy, this one guy actually has made a profound difference for every American.  I find that fascinating, and motivating too.  One person can change things, even if it seems just a ripple in the water.  That ripple can create an unstoppable wave.

When I asked Andrew his thoughts as to why it seems researchers are willing to ignore the overwhelming evidence that there is no retirement crisis, he gives these folks the benefit of the doubt.

He says essentially “well, they would say, ‘it can’t hurt for people to save more.  And if we need to scare them to do it, so be it’.”

I am not as diplomatic though. It CAN hurt to scare people to save more if that means they are stretched thin today and thus are needlessly stressing.   I deal with this every, single day! In fact I just received an email from a guy who’s been downsized and is seeking guidance from me saying “I will pay whatever. I’m scared for my family.”

What causes family chaos more than anything? Financial concerns!  Heck Jesus talks about money all the time.  In fact,
“Jesus spoke about money roughly 15% of his preaching and 11 out of 39 parables. It was his most talked about topic.”

Money is a big flippin’ deal. Financial fear and stress breaks up families and hurts children and our country. This is no joke, and shouldn’t be treated as simply collateral damage to promote an agenda by the academic elite.

You know what else is causing an insane amount of stress today?
Fear of climate change.  There is a cottage industry now of eco-anxiety due to the overwhelming pessimism from the elite about the state of our environment.

And just like with financial awareness, the climate doomsdayers say “well, what bad can happen by encouraging people to live ‘greener’?”

Well, for starters tons of people, many of them children, die every year from breathing bad air due to having to burn wood and cow dung to heat their homes and cook their food.  If these people had access to fossil fuels they’d have more than a fighting chance of survival.  And who knows, maybe one of them could solve the issue with energy storage in batteries.

But because of the pessimists people are scared. A scared people, of course, means they’re easier to lead.  You could even make a case for why religion is so dominated with fire and brimstone.  A preacher saying “if you don’t listen to ME, you will be damned for all of eternity!!!  Now do as I say!”  What could be scarier than that.

(I choose the C.S. Lewis take.  You’re in front of the Pearly Gates and St. Peter says “are you ready to confess and bow before God?”  You say “No. I refuse to believe.”  St. Peter then says “Okay, thy will be done.” And sends you on to whatever awaits for you, bereft of God’s everlasting love…by YOUR own choice.

You see the subtle difference between the two issues here?  One path convinces you to follow based on fear.  The other based on love.  Which do you think God wants you to choose?  Yes, you fear God, but moreso because you can’t imagine a world without His love, not because of the punishment that awaits. There is no punishment worse than not loving God and allowing Him to love you back.)

So, if you’re following me, I refuse to fall for the fear-mongering.  My own life is proof enough for me.  I imagine if you really thought about it too, you’d look at your own life as all the evidence you need to say “wait a second. I AM better off today than I was 30, 40, 50 years ago!  What the heck are these people bellyaching about?”

So join us and be part of the ripple of optimism.  And who knows, maybe together we’ll form a wave that will swamp the doomsdayers and allow people to relax and live more fulfilling lives.

The Bear FINALLY Roared!

For years now, we’ve been hearing the market was too pricey, the Shiller CAPE ratio proves that. Or the debt was out of control. Or we’ve never had this long of a bull, etc. etc.  And yet the markets kept marching along, on the basis of continued corporate earnings growth and dividends.  As always.

Suddenly, something  NO ONE predicted called Coronavirus hits and there is no more toilet paper to be had and the markets FINALLY fall.   The doomsdayers were right, no?

BWHAHAHA. I laugh at the doomsdayers.  if anyone was invested without the slightest thinking of a bear market happening, they were either newbies or were living in a fantasy land of linear rates of return.  (A well known commentator, who I will not name here, offers retirement withdrawal advice off of the idea of linear rates of return which infuriates me something wicked).

Linear rates of return mean the market averages say 10% a year, thus, in EACH year, I expect a 10% rate of return.  That thinking is silly for investors, and it’s dangerous for advisors.

To prove my point, I always use the Vanguard paper, “When Will We Get Back to Normal” and I even did a video of that here.

Facts are, on any given year, the markets hardly EVER give you the average rate of return. Just read the Vanguard paper to see for yourself.  How a professional doesn’t know this boggles my mind.

So, now that the doomsdayers can finally gloat and say “I told you so!” what comes next?

Seems pretty clear to me, a HUGE growth spurt.  When exactly will that happen? I’ve no clue.  But empty shelves should tell you one thing and one thing only, inventories need to be replenished.

That is growth.

People having their trips canceled and sitting on their hands for weeks on end will mean growth once this thing clears up.

Mortgages being refinanced, at historically low rates, freeing up more cash flow.

Growth.

Or you can think about it like this.  You go to the store.  Are the streets empty of traffic? Are the aisles free of consumers? The gas stations?  Etc.

Nope. At least not in my little part of North Fulton County, GA.  It’s nuts out there!

Companies that were making money before, will have a slow down, indeed.  Once this insanity is behind us,  the pent-up demand will be a sight for sore eyes and KABOOM!  It’s going to be fun to watch.

When will this happen? I’ve no clue. You’ve no clue.  The silly “experts” in the media, our educational establishment, politicians and government officials have none either.

Trump doesn’t know. Biden doesn’t know. But it’s coming.  Actually, with Bernie out of the way, the risk of socialism is gone, at least for the next 4 years, meaning growth.

So what do you do? As I’ve said a million times to Sunday you follow the great Louis Rukeyser and “Don’t Just Do Something. Sit There!”

For a fascinating take on the insanity and mass hysteria that was October 1987 watch his Wall St. Week episode here.   How eerily similar no?

So, when the growth comes back, will the doomsdayers take their ball and go back to the caves from which they came? Of course not!

There’s money to be made in being a doomsdayer.  Just look at Paul Ehrlich, James Hansen, Michael Mann, et al. We’re all supposed to be dead by now.  Yet here we are living the greatest time in human history in the greatest nation ever, by Divine Intervention of course.

But how do you deal with the doomsdayers? Laughter and mockery.  Always just laugh. Not to see the bounty we have as Americans today is be deliberately be living in a black cloud. Forget all that!  If that is you, please unsubscribe.  I personally have no time for that stuff.

It’s a great and wonderful world. God is good and forever will be. And there is no reason not to rejoice.

Blessings,

Josh

P.S.

I’m getting a number of inquiries about folks concerned on their retirement plans who say they’d like to hire me but my fee is too high.

So, instead of letting them go off into the wilderness of financial planners who don’t think, I’m offering my Retirement Planning Course at a 50% discount for the next month.

Yes, if people buy it, I get paid.  I don’t deny that. Hopefully, your purchase will prove to be a win/win arrangement.

If not, there is a 30 day 100% money back guarantee. I’ve only had to make 1 refund so far, I’m happy to say. And the lady who asked was very apologetic.  She didn’t need to be though. As the course wasn’t what she was looking for.

Go here and at check out use the coupon code 50.

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