It’s Been A While Hasn’t It?
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Well, I’ve been busy as a Bee in a Bonnet! My financial planning business didn’t fall off hardly at all, first and foremost. Which, frankly, was/is shocking to me. (Makes me wonder if the numbers we’ve been told about 40 million jobs lost are actually correct.)
The pain in my knee has also gone away and as such I’ve been out walking Pablo (aka King of All Scandlen’s) a lot, meaning I’ve done a ton of videos too.
Lastly, I’ve been working on my forthcoming book, “Retire on The Wellington Fund”.
I’m going to share with you a sneak preview of what that book will consist of, lots of graphs, with various commentaries, looking at past numbers.
For instance the below shows what would have happened if you had $100k when you retired in 1930. You put 4 years of expenditures ($24k) in a non-interest bearing cash account and the rest, $74k, in the Wellington Fund and had 6% initial withdraws adjusted for inflation each year.
You would have run out of money in 22 years.
Yet if you would have done the EXACT same thing except started one year later, in 1931, the results would have been remarkably different:
Now check this out:
Here we’re doing the Barbell approach starting in 1930 but using only 5% initial distributions and adjusting for inflation. See the difference???
We survived 30 years of retirement – and this was starting during the GREAT DEPRESSION WITH NO INTEREST ON THE CASH BUCKET EITHER!!!
So, while everyone is focusing on 4% they are leaving a lot of money to their estate when, in fact, they could have spent that money themselves partying like it’s 1999.
Oh, I hear ya, BUT??? Yes, indeed, we’ll dive DEEP into the chaos that was the US high inflation years of the mid 60’s through the early 80’s.
It gets ugly then. No two ways around it.
BUTTTTT, is that likely to happen again?
Let’s look at the data. What countries signify what the US may be looking at in the future? (In my best Richard Dawson voice)”Survey Says… JAPAN!”
Japan right now has an inflation rate of .1%, not 1% mind you, but POINT 1%, with an annual GDP Growth rate of NEGATIVE 2.2%. An unemployment rate of 2.6%, a Debt to GPD of 238% and a 10 year Government bond paying all of .02%.
Are we more like Japan or say Turkey which is kinda, sorta part of the EU and the “West”. Turkey has annualized GDP growth of 4.5%, 10 year government bond at 11.75%, inflation at 11.39%, unemployment at 13.2%, but a government debt to GDP only at 33%.
Who does the Good Ole USofA align closer to, may I ask? (Actually, can I still even call it the “Good” Ole USofA anymore? Seems a lot of people today are proudly saying America was never good. For the record, if this is your viewpoint, please unsubscribe now. I don’t want you here.
“Josh, why do you have to get political? ” I hear this on occasion. Because America is the best country the world has ever seen and I’m tired of it being dragged through the mud by people who proudly align with evil that is Communists. Someone, ANYONE needs to stick up for the country, scars and all!)
Soooo, if you think Turkey is more likely to be our fate, well, my book probably will frighten you because it’s gonna get ugly.
If you think we’re closer to the Japan model, well, seems to me living off a 4% rule is living wayyyy too frugally. Don’t do that!
Much, much more to come with the book.