The Bear FINALLY Roared!
For years now, we’ve been hearing the market was too pricey, the Shiller CAPE ratio proves that. Or the debt was out of control. Or we’ve never had this long of a bull, etc. etc. And yet the markets kept marching along, on the basis of continued corporate earnings growth and dividends. As always.
Suddenly, something NO ONE predicted called Coronavirus hits and there is no more toilet paper to be had and the markets FINALLY fall. The doomsdayers were right, no?
BWHAHAHA. I laugh at the doomsdayers. if anyone was invested without the slightest thinking of a bear market happening, they were either newbies or were living in a fantasy land of linear rates of return. (A well known commentator, who I will not name here, offers retirement withdrawal advice off of the idea of linear rates of return which infuriates me something wicked).
Linear rates of return mean the market averages say 10% a year, thus, in EACH year, I expect a 10% rate of return. That thinking is silly for investors, and it’s dangerous for advisors.
To prove my point, I always use the Vanguard paper, “When Will We Get Back to Normal” and I even did a video of that here.
Facts are, on any given year, the markets hardly EVER give you the average rate of return. Just read the Vanguard paper to see for yourself. How a professional doesn’t know this boggles my mind.
So, now that the doomsdayers can finally gloat and say “I told you so!” what comes next?
Seems pretty clear to me, a HUGE growth spurt. When exactly will that happen? I’ve no clue. But empty shelves should tell you one thing and one thing only, inventories need to be replenished.
That is growth.
People having their trips canceled and sitting on their hands for weeks on end will mean growth once this thing clears up.
Mortgages being refinanced, at historically low rates, freeing up more cash flow.
Or you can think about it like this. You go to the store. Are the streets empty of traffic? Are the aisles free of consumers? The gas stations? Etc.
Nope. At least not in my little part of North Fulton County, GA. It’s nuts out there!
Companies that were making money before, will have a slow down, indeed. Once this insanity is behind us, the pent-up demand will be a sight for sore eyes and KABOOM! It’s going to be fun to watch.
When will this happen? I’ve no clue. You’ve no clue. The silly “experts” in the media, our educational establishment, politicians and government officials have none either.
Trump doesn’t know. Biden doesn’t know. But it’s coming. Actually, with Bernie out of the way, the risk of socialism is gone, at least for the next 4 years, meaning growth.
So what do you do? As I’ve said a million times to Sunday you follow the great Louis Rukeyser and “Don’t Just Do Something. Sit There!”
For a fascinating take on the insanity and mass hysteria that was October 1987 watch his Wall St. Week episode here. How eerily similar no?
So, when the growth comes back, will the doomsdayers take their ball and go back to the caves from which they came? Of course not!
There’s money to be made in being a doomsdayer. Just look at Paul Ehrlich, James Hansen, Michael Mann, et al. We’re all supposed to be dead by now. Yet here we are living the greatest time in human history in the greatest nation ever, by Divine Intervention of course.
But how do you deal with the doomsdayers? Laughter and mockery. Always just laugh. Not to see the bounty we have as Americans today is be deliberately be living in a black cloud. Forget all that! If that is you, please unsubscribe. I personally have no time for that stuff.
It’s a great and wonderful world. God is good and forever will be. And there is no reason not to rejoice.
I’m getting a number of inquiries about folks concerned on their retirement plans who say they’d like to hire me but my fee is too high.
So, instead of letting them go off into the wilderness of financial planners who don’t think, I’m offering my Retirement Planning Course at a 50% discount for the next month.
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